Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
