A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
